This Friday (22 May), voters across the Dublin Central constituency will head to the polls, in one of the two by-electionsbeing held across the country. A seat has become vacant in Dublin Central due to the resignation of Paschal Donohue last November, who was a sitting TD in the constituency. The Dublin by-election can be considered as an important test of public sentiment towards the Government, in the aftermath of recent fuel protests.
Why Dublin Central matters
As it stands, Dublin Central is one of Ireland’s most politically diverse constituencies. The constituency is comprised of parts of the north inner city including the traditional working-class neighbourhoods of the East Wall and Cabra. It also includes more gentrified areas including Stoneybatter and Phibsborough, the suburbs of Drumcondra and Glasnevin, along with centrally located communities such as Fairview.
Key issues for voters
The greatest concern raised on the canvass trails to election candidates is the cost of living, followed by housing. The issue of housing is unsurprising given that the constituency has one of the highest rates of homelessness and private renting in the country. As one of the most ethnically diverse constituencies in the State, immigration was also identified as one of the biggest issues for voters, followed by antisocial behaviour and access to special education. These issues have no doubt shaped candidates’ campaigns and will be at the forefront of voters’ minds when they take to the polls.
Recent polling
A recent Irish Times poll (published 14 May) sees Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan taking the lead, followed by Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis who according to the results, is strongly positioned to benefit from transfer votes. In third place is Independent candidate Gerry Hutch, who just just narrowly missed out on a seat in the last general election in 2024. Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam, the current Lord Mayor of Dublin, follows in fourth, followed by Green Party’s Janet Horner, Independent candidate Malachy Steenson, Labour’s Ruth O’ Dea, Fianna Fáil’s John Stephens and finally People Before Profit’s Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin.
The key dynamic at play: Ireland’s transferrable voting system
The Dublin Central by-election serves as an example of how Irish elections are often won, while it is not just about first preference votes, transfer votes will play a crucial role in who takes this seat. While Janice Boylan appears at the top of the first count, Daniel Ennis has the potential to overtake Boylan through transfers from Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil votes. While Boylan is polling well, Sinn Féin often receives fewer centrist and centre left voters and subsequent transfers than the Social Democrats. This race is therefore less about who leads initial polls but about who is more broadly acceptable across different voting preferences.
Conclusion
With housing, the cost of living and immigration dominating the campaign, the result of the Dublin Central by-election will provide an indication of public attitudes toward both the government and opposition parties. The election also demonstrates the importance of Ireland’s transfer voting system, where second and third preferences may prove decisive in determining the winner of this highly contested by-election.
