Here at Vulcan, we’re going to be providing regular analysis on key battlegrounds, party comparisons and deep-dives into central issues ahead of the Irish General Election. This week, we take the looking glass and turn it towards Wexford where a change in seat numbers and the retirements of two stalwarts is shaping the constituency into what could be one of the most hotly contested.
At the Fianna Fáil sit-in on September 16, Tánaiste, Micheál Martin described as “hot air” the prospect of a General Election in November 2024. Despite this Opposition Leader, Mary Lou McDonald says her party is preparing for just that. Whether an early election is called, the clock is ticking on this Irish government and there’s lots to discuss.
Wexford: What do we know?
With a voter turnout of 66.7%, Wexford was above the national average of 62.9%. This is largely reflective of how competitive this constituency is, with each of the three largest parties taking a seat in 2020 while Labour and Verona Murphy (Independent) claimed the final two. With the creation of the new South Wicklow/North Wexford constituency, Wexford has returned to a four-seat constituency making competition for places even more fierce.
Too many or too few? Party approaches to candidate selection
One of the key questions for all parties will be how to manage their vote. For Sinn Féin the question following the 2020 Election was one of ‘what ifs’ following Johnny Mythen’s romp home to victory in the constituency. However poor polling has forced the party to play cautiously again, with Mythen the only runner. There had been some suggestion that instead, Councillor and primary school teacher, Tom Forde might get the nod. Not only was Mythen supposedly considering retirement, but the creation of the new South Wicklow/North Wexford constituency eats into much of the county north of Enniscorthy where Mythen is from. Despite that, Mythen is running and will hope for a repeat performance.
For Fianna Fáil the opposite may well have been true. They ran four candidates in 2020 and though they achieved collectively a broader share of the vote than Sinn Féin they too only managed to elect one TD in James Browne. That miscalculation seems to have been rectified with only Browne selected to run so far. Even if another name is added to the ticket, it’s unlikely to be four as it was in 2020. Senator Malcolm Byrne, who ran last time, has been brought into the new South Wicklow/North Wexford constituency instead. Fianna Fáil will have been tempted by more candidates but have ultimately decided, like Sinn Féin, to play it safe.
Labour have to fill the shoes of former leader, Brendan Howlin who has been elected in the constituency for nine consecutive General Elections and has decided to retire. Long-standing and respected Councillor, George Lawlor is set to run in his stead and will be confident in what is traditionally a heartland for Irish Labour. The Party has managed to return a TD to the Dáil in every election (bar one, in 1982) since the founding of the state and Lawlor will be hoping to claim it again.
The constituency only gets more difficult to predict the more variables that are introduced. Fine Gael, off the back of positive polling and their new Taoiseach boost in Simon Harris, have opted for two candidates in Councillors Bridín Murphy and Cathal Byrne. The contest is likely to be an open shootout between the two for Paul Kehoe’s vacant seat which he has managed to consistently win for the party since 2002. Similarly to Mythen, Byrne has been hampered by the constituency redraw, losing areas in the north of the county such as Ferns and Bunclody where he would have been expected to perform strongly. Indeed, Fine Gael’s prospects of retaining Kehoe’s seat will be heavily dependent on the ability of both candidates to pick up second preferences from their running mate to make up for shortfalls in areas of the constituency where they would not be as well known.
Independent candidate Verona Murphy is another one to look out for here. Murphy has built a strong team of independent councillors over the last four years and will fancy her chances once more ahead of the Greens and SPBP who all came through with single digit first preferences in 2020.
Enter Mick Wallace…
One undetermined curveball in Wexford is whether former TD (2011-19) and former MEP (2019-24), Mick Wallace will run in the upcoming General Election. Wallace narrowly missed out in the recent European Elections losing his seat after the 20th count in the five-seat constituency. If Wallace were to run again as a TD it would become increasingly difficult to predict the constituency’s final outcome.
Other things to look out for…
One aspect of this Irish General Election that is sure to excite political analysts will be the phenomenon of voter retention following retirement. The withdrawal of Oireachtas heavyweights, Paul Kehoe TD and Brendan Howlin TD, will be an important part of how Wexford plays out.
Kehoe is a former chief whip for Fine Gael and former Minister of State for Defence having served the constituency since 2002. Howlin, the former leader of the Labour Party, is also a former Minister having acted within the Environment, Health and Public Expenditure portfolios and has served the constituency since 1987. To what degree their voters have been voting for them as individuals, rather than their party could be fundamental as to whether their replacements retain the parties’ seats.
Key issues to watch
Housing
The average price of a home is now €291,000, according to the latest report by daft.ie. The number of houses available to buy across Ireland is the lowest it’s been in 17 years. Nationally, housing prices rose by an average of 1.8 per cent in the first three months of 2024. In Wexford that was over 5 per cent. New figures from the Parliamentary Budget Office show 5,299 people in Wexford are on social housing lists or in receipt of Housing Assistance Payment (HAP). This challenge will be top of many voter’s agendas.
Cost of living
Minister for Finance Jack Chambers has suggested another tax cut for lower and middle income earners is en route. It will likely be well received by a beleaguered population who are still yet to see wage growth match the rate of inflation over the last two years. Whether or not the people of Wexford judge the government’s actions enough will be of central importance to how this constituency plays out.
Immigration
Wexford has seen recent protests against the government’s housing of international protection applicants and other migrants. Rosslare has been front and centre of this when in December 2023 up to 100 people at a time marched in relays from the village to the entrance of Rosslare Europort to highlight opposition to the placement there of 170 international protection applicants. Looking across Europe, this issue is likely only to grow in importance.
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