The 33rd Dáil has officially been dissolved. On November 29th, the people of Ireland will make a decision on who will represent them in Dáil Eireann over the next five years. Following the Irish General Election the Dáil will convene in December to elect a Taoiseach and government and this week’s Vulcan’s analysis is focused on the three frontrunners for that post.
The ‘TikTok’ Taoiseach
Ireland’s youngest-ever Taoiseach, Simon Harris has comfortably settled into his role, enjoying public support with strong approval ratings in recent polls. The Fine Gael campaign will not be all plain sailing however, as the ‘TikTok Taoiseach’ will still have to defend Fine Gael’s record on key issues such as the housing crisis and Ireland’s healthcare system – two of the most prominent issues since 2011. The recent budget will undoubtedly have helped conversations on the doorstep with the government committing to an unprecedented public spending plan across several areas. Recent figures on homelessness for September will be of concern, reaching record numbers. Harris will be hoping to convince the electorate that solutions are on their way. If he can do this over the three-week campaign and avoid any major gaffes, Fine Gael will be in a strong position come the 29th November.
Round 2 for Micheál…
Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin continues to enjoy strong public support and approval as he leads Ireland’s most successful electoral party into another election. Some pundits thought Martin might step-down following his original stint as Taoiseach in 2020, paving the way for new blood into the leadership of the party. However strong polling figures and a majority desire within the party to keep him at the helm has led to another run at the highest political office for the Cork man. The experienced Martin is a very effective media performer. The latest Business Post/Red C poll shows his party closing in on their coalition partners, Fine Gael. Given that political polling tends to under–represent true levels of support for Fianna Fáil, Martin will be confident of a strong showing on Election Day.
Below: The latest party standings (November 10, 2024) Source: Business Post/Red C Poll
Ireland’s first female Taoiseach?
Mary Lou McDonald, President and Leader of Sinn Féin is the other contender for the office of An Taoiseach. The upcoming campaign will be an enormous test of her leadership with recent difficulties leaving half of voters saying they do not believe the Sinn Féin leader is fit to be Taoiseach (Business Post/Red C). Though that will no doubt have been of considerable concern for the party hierarchy, McDonald and Sinn Féin still remain in a relatively strong position. Her performance in media debates has always been effective and she will take confidence in the knowledge that the upcoming election will be fought on the same bread and butter issues as 2020 such as housing and healthcare. If the Sinn Féin leader is successful in reorientating the narrative away from her party’s recent difficulties and towards these fundamental issues, she may well outperform many pundit’s predictions.
A Sinn Féin-led government and Mary Lou McDonald Taoiseach may be the least likely outcome of this Irish General Election as things stand but stranger things have happened and all remains in play with three weeks to go.
