This week, Vulcan’s Irish General Election analysis shifts to Dublin Bay North: a constituency which will see three deputies depart with no shortage of emerging political talent.
How it played out in 2020
Retiring TDs
Dublin Bay North follows the trends in many constituencies across Ireland ahead of the Irish General Election and will have several prominent TDs retiring from their seats.
Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton (retiring), Fianna Fáil’s Seán Haughey (retiring) and Labour’s Aodhan O’ Riordan (Europe) will all vacate the electoral cycle for the Dáil.
The departure of three strong candidates, many of whom have held their seat for decades makes the competition for places in their absence even more considerable.
Runners and Riders
The level of competition for the five seats of Dublin Bay North is set to be fierce with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin all running two candidates and fresh contenders entering the race. This, paired with a plethora of departures, makes for one of Ireland’s most intriguing.
Deputy Denise Mitchell, who topped the poll in the 2020 general election, is contesting the 2024 General Election for Sinn Féin, hoping to retain her seat which she has held since 2016 and safeguard Sinn Féin’s presence in the constituency. Given Mitchell’s strong performance in the 2020 election where she received the highest number of first preference votes in the country, Sinn Féin is striving to gain two seats in Dublin Bay North. This confidence has been absent in many of Sinn Féin’s other ‘poll topping’ constituencies, as the party continue to slide in national opinion polling but Dublin Bay North is somewhere they clearly see an opportunity to split the vote and get two TDs over the line. Cllr. Mícheál Mac Donncha is running alongside Mitchell and brings a wealth of experience in local politics to the fore.
The departure of Labour’s Aodhán O Ríordáin to the European Parliament may work in Sinn Féin’s favour, with the party possibly looking to harness Labour’s left-wing vote to bolster their own candidates. However, Labour’s Shane Folan will be looking to fill his predecessor’s seat and deny Sinn Féin a foothold. Labour have been polling relatively well in the Dublin area which indicates that Folan is a strong contender to hold O’ Ríordáin’s seat.
Below: Results of the latest Business Post/ Red C first preference polling
The Social Democrats deputy leader and Spokesperson on Housing Cian O’Callaghan is the only other incumbent to run for re-election. This makes for an interesting theme, with the incumbent candidates being in opposition while the three vacant seats were all assumed by former government ministers at one point. Polls are leaning in the Social Democrats favour, leaving O’Callaghan well positioned to maintain his seat. In recent weeks, Deputy O’Callaghan launched his party’s affordable homes plan and will likely seek to make housing his leading policy priority which, given that housing is the most prominent issue to the electorate, should resonate with voters in Dublin Bay North during this years Irish General Election.
Fianna Fáil is navigating the retirement of Deputy Sean Haughey. The party still hopes for success with high-profile local politicians in Cllr. Deirdre Heney and Cllr. Tom Brabazon. Cllr Heney received the second highest Fianna Fáil vote nationwide in the 2024 local elections when she was re-elected to Dublin City Council on the first count and is the leader of the party’s representation within Dublin City Council. Cllr Brabazon, as a former Lord Mayor of Dublin also brings considerable recognition to the table for the electorate. In the 2024 local elections, the council veteran was re-elected on the first count.
For Fine Gael, the retirement of Richard Bruton marks the end of an era for the party. Since 1982, Bruton retained his seat across ten elections, making him a popular and well-respected face both in Dublin Bay North and in Dáil Éireann. The party will look to hold Bruton’s seat and possibly gain another, with both Cllr. Aoibhinn Tormey and Cllr. Naoise Ó Muirí contesting the election. Cllr. Ó Muirí has been a Dublin city councillor since 2004 and has served as Lord Mayor of Dublin while Cllr. Tormey was first elected in 2019. Fine Gael’s ticket provides an even geographic spread with Tormey currently representing Howth, Sutton and Baldoyle and Ó Muirí representing Clontarf. They will lean heavily on the seeming popularity of Simon Harris over the coming weeks.
Independent candidates also have considerable prospects to gain a seat. Given June’s local elections, Independent candidates like Cllr. Barry Henegan show potential. He is backed by former Independent TD Finian McGrath who represented the former Dublin North-Central constituency. Another candidate on the left of the political spectrum is former-People Before Profit, now Independent councillor John Lyons. He will also be looking to benefit from progressive voters. The transition of political representatives in Dublin Bay North may provide the ideal environment for an Independent to capitalise and appeal to a broad voter pool.
Doorstep issues for Irish General Election 2024…
Immigration
The rise in far-right rhetoric has been pronounced in Dublin Bay North, with high-profile protests in Coolock following government plans to build a refugee centre there. In terms of trying to capitalise on any local support garnered from this, there are far-right candidates standing for both the Irish Freedom Party and the National Alliance. Despite it being an unlikely prospect that a far-right candidate is elected, it will be interesting to monitor the vote share anti-immigration candidates receive. Independent far-right candidates could prove to be deciding influences where their transfers will be crucial.
Below: Scenes from ‘Coolock Says No’ protests earlier this year
Housing
In this almost entirely urban constituency, housing will naturally come to the forefront as a prominent issue for the electorate. This may be a challenging policy matter to navigate for first-time candidates representing Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael who are seeking to retain government seats. It should be expected that opposition candidates will place housing at the top of their priorities for the area and given the considerable demand to live in this affluent constituency, local to the city centre, housing supply and affordability are key.
Transport links
In recent months, there has been an uneasiness within Dublin Bay North due to the prospect of direct DART services for the constituency towns of Howth, Sutton and Bayside being replaced by shuttle DART services in order to enhance capacity on this rail line. This concern has emerged from provider Iarnród Éireann lodging a railway order application with An Bord Pleanála to extend the electrified DART network from Malahide to Drogheda.
There is increasing concern amongst constituents from these towns regarding a deterioration in the frequency of accessibility to and from Dublin city centre via rail. This could prove to be a prominent issue when candidates are on the canvassing trail offering an opportunity for those able to provide a clear solution to reap the rewards.
