Following the mayhem of the U.S. election and Donald Trump’s decisive victory, Germany’s three-party ruling coalition collapsed in response to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement that he fired his Finance Minister, Christian Lindner. This is in response to persistent rifts in their spending and economic reforms, and it will pave the way for snap elections. However, Scholz’s announcement was less the outright ousting of a strong coalition and more like the final step in putting down a wounded animal.
Germany’s three-party ruling coalition is the result of a fragmented political landscape. The coalition consists of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens on the left side of the aisle and the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) on the centre-right. Where the SPD and Greens favour strong social and economic safety nets and significant investment to boost growth and the green transition, the FDP prefers less spending and less government intervention in people’s lives. The rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, polling nationally in second place, will exacerbate the fragmentation issue.
A critical moment in the decline of Scholz’s coalition came about a year ago when Germany’s top court decided the government’s decision to fund its green transition with €60 billion in unused debt from the COVID-19 pandemic violated the “debt brake” and was therefore unlawful. Without these “special funds,” which Scholz’s coalition had been relying on, they suffered a wave of electoral defeats and record-low approval ratings. The loss of these funds worsened relations in the coalition as its parties began utilizing partisan-style politics, playing to their bases. Following repeated threats from the FDP Leader Christian Lindner and his colleagues to force new elections, Scholz announced his decision to fire Lindner, prompting the FDP to cede from the coalition.
Holding a snap election is a complicated process. Scholz must call and lose a confidence vote in parliament. Then, Germany’s president can dissolve the parliament within 21 days, followed by a snap election within 60 days. Initially, Scholz announced that he would continue with a minority government, holding a confidence vote on 15 January, leading to a snap election at the end of March. However, Frederick Merz, leader of the CDU and candidate for chancellor, pleaded with Scholz to ensure an election happens before Trump takes office in January. On top of this, The German federal body that oversees elections wrote to Scholz that an election in the first two months of 2025 poses “incalculable risks at all levels.” On Sunday, Scholz said he was ready to hold a confidence vote before Christmas. Snap elections will take place in Germany on 23 February 2025.
Merz’s CDU and the Christian Social Union (CSU) -their Bavarian allies-, are currently leading in the polls by a steep margin, with 32 per cent support, followed by AfD, with 17 per cent support. The CDU, that vowed not to form a coalition with AfD, could form a coalition with Scholz’s SPD, polling at 16 per cent support.
As German leaders are arguing about when to hold their snap elections, it’s worth noting that Russian and North Korean soldiers are preparing an assault on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, who is threatening to cut funding to Ukraine and promising new tariffs on German cars, could also spell disaster if Germany continues to be consumed by domestic issues and electoral deadlock, even unable to pass a budget for 2025.
