The fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine falls on Tuesday (24 February). Diplomatic activity is higher than at any time since 2022, but there are few signs the war will end soon, as Russia digs in and the EU continues to push forward, even without much U.S. involvement.
Bilateral talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, mediated by the United States, have continued this week in Gulf capitals and Geneva. Donald Trump has said a deal is “reasonably close” and the White House is keen to come to an agreement by June, ahead of consequential mid-term elections in early November.
But European intelligence officials are deeply sceptical. Five senior European spy chiefs told Reuters in recent days that Moscow is not seeking a quick peace. Most agree that Russia is using the talks to press for sanctions relief and explore business deals with Washington. One described the process as “negotiation theatre”.
Russia’s strategic objectives have not changed, according to these officials. They include the removal of Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the transformation of Ukraine into a neutral buffer state. Moscow’s insincerity and provocative nature can be seen in its demand that Kyiv withdraw from the remaining 20% of the Donetsk region it does not control.
All that’s left is a war economy
The Kremlin appears to have concluded that an economy growing just 1% last year, with forecasts of around 1% again in 2026, is still strong enough to avoid serious domestic unrest, even as oil and gas revenues fell by 24% in 2025 and interest rates remain at 15.5%. The calculation is that Russia can muddle through economically while Western support for Ukraine weakens.
In practice, Russia has adapted to a war economy: defence spending is prioritised, borrowing costs for businesses hover near 18–19%, and consumer spending has stalled, yet the state continues to finance the war and prevent systemic collapse.
EU pushes through
The European Union is signalling endurance of its own. A €90bn loan for Ukraine, backed by the EU budget and raised on capital markets, is set to be approved in a special plenary session of the European Parliament on the war’s anniversary. The funding is designed to cover Ukraine’s administrative and military needs for up to two years.
At the same time, Brussels is working on its 20th sanctions package, targeting energy, financial services and trade. The measures would introduce a full maritime services ban on Russian crude oil, expand the list of shadow fleet vessels, tighten export controls and add further banking restrictions. The Commission has also proposed banning all cryptocurrency transactions with Russian providers and deploying new anti-circumvention powers against third countries that facilitate re-exports.
For now, Member states have failed to agree unanimously on the package, and its adoption may slip beyond the anniversary date.
