On Monday, 16 June, the annual National Economic Dialogue (NED) took place at Dublin Castle, framed under the theme: “Medium-term budgetary planning against a rapidly changing global backdrop”. The event brought together a wide range of representatives from charities, environmental groups, businesses, unions and the academic community, as well as members of the Cabinet and the Select Committee on Budgetary Oversight. The aim was to inform Budget 2026 and support the development of a new Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. Discussions were held in themed breakout sessions, each chaired by a government minister.
Key themes
Minister Paschal Donohoe repeatedly underscored the theme of rising economic uncertainty, describing the short-term outlook as “clouded in uncertainty.” Notably, the U.S. Federal Reserve downgraded its economic growth projections this week, a concerning development given that the U.S. is Ireland’s largest export market. He emphasised the importance of investing strategically in infrastructure and public services while adhering to EU fiscal rules and strengthening Ireland’s economic resilience for the future.
Despite global risks, domestic challenges were at the forefront of the discussions. Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers emphasised a targeted focus on infrastructure delivery, highlighting the ongoing review of the National Development Plan alongside efforts by the newly established Infrastructure Taskforce to identify and address barriers to implementation.
Climate policy featured prominently, with an emphasis on scaling up investments in renewables, energy security, and emission reductions. While most agreed on the direction, environmental groups called for faster action. Ireland’s dependence on imported fossil fuels should be highlighted amid geopolitical instability. Wael Sawan, the CEO of Shell Plc, warned this week that unresolved tensions in the Middle East could lead to spikes in energy prices, increased inflation, and threats to economic stability.
Furthermore, Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke underscored the need to boost productivity, drive innovation, and maintain stable investment flows. Stakeholders echoed these priorities, emphasising the importance of tax and regulatory certainty to retain talent and attract business. The urgency of these issues was reinforced this week by the release of the latest competitiveness rankings from the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), which saw Ireland fall three places amid signs of strain in productivity and investment flows.
Next Steps
Attention now turns to July, when the government will publish the Summer Economic Statement, outlining the fiscal parameters that will shape Budget 2026. At the same time, the countdown continues toward the EU-US tariff deadline, creating a challenging environment for framing October’s budget.
