Ireland is on track to miss its national emission reduction target of 51 per cent by 2030. According to projections from the Environmental Protection Agency, the country is expected to achieve a 23 per cent reduction, falling short of the state’s ambitious target. This marks a notable deterioration compared to 2024 when a 29 per cent reduction was projected by the end of the decade.
The carbon budgets set by the Government in 2021 to reduce emissions are now unlikely to be achieved. Consequently, Ireland faces an increased risk of incurring non-compliance costs from the EU, likely through the purchase of carbon credits from other Member States.
Total emissions from land use are projected to increase by up to 95 per cent. This can be attributed to challenges in the forestry sector. High rates of harvesting combined with low replanting rates are major contributing factors, resulting in land remaining a significant source of emissions rather than serving as a carbon sink. Furthermore, agriculture alone accounts for more than one-third of national emissions, with limited reductions to date.
Given the risk of substantial fines that would ultimately impact public finances, alongside missed emissions targets across all major sectors, it is crucial that Ireland significantly accelerates renewable energy production. The country continues to face delays in connecting renewable energy projects to the grid, due to planning constraints and regulatory hurdles which in turn affects investment opportunities.
On 27 May, Energy Minister Darragh O’Brien announced €13 billion in funding to enhance grid capacity over the next five years. Speaking at the Wind Energy Ireland conference, Minister O’Brien acknowledged the need to develop strong infrastructure and expand the country’s renewable energy capacity. He accepted that Ireland has “lagged behind Europe”in renewable energy development, pledging to focus on delivery and investment over the next five years.
