On Tuesday (4 November), the European Commission presented its annual assessment of candidate countries, those seeking to join the EU. The text reports solid progress of several candidate countries while cautioning that reforms in democracy, rule of law and fundamental rights remain essential. It confirms that accession for some countries is increasingly within reach, provided they maintain momentum on critical reforms.
The best positioned: Montenegro and Albania
Montenegro has emerged as the front-runner, having closed four negotiation chapters over the past year and setting an ambitious target to conclude accession negotiations by the end of 2026. The Commission believes this goal is achievable if the country maintains its reform pace and builds a broad political consensus.
Similarly, Albania has opened four negotiating clusters in twelve months, with preparations underway to open the final cluster this year. Albania aims to wrap up negotiations by 2027, a deadline the Commission considers realistic to continue progress on justice reform and the fight against organised crime and corruption.
Acceleration: Ukraine and Moldova
Despite Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has completed the screening process—a detailed examination of how closely its laws align with EU standards—and adopted roadmaps on the rule of law, public administration and democratic institutions. The Commission expects Ukraine to meet the conditions to open all negotiating clusters before the end of the year. Kyiv has signalled its ambition to provisionally close accession negotiations by the end of 2028, though the Commission stresses that an acceleration of reforms, particularly on the rule of law, will be necessary to meet this objective.
Moldova has also advanced under difficult circumstances including continuous hybrid threats aimed at destabilising the country. Following the first EU–Moldova summit in July 2025, Chișinău completed its screening process and adopted reform roadmaps which were positively assessed by the Commission. Moldova has set an early 2028 target for provisional closure of negotiations—an ambitious but achievable goal, according to Brussels, provided reform momentum accelerates. Finally, parliamentary elections in September 2025 have reinforced strong public support for Moldova’s European path.
Stalled progress: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Türkiye and Georgia
Serbia faces deepening political polarisation following mass protests since November 2024 over corruption, accountability and alleged excessive force against demonstrators. The Commission notes that reforms have significantly slowed and warns of backsliding on freedom of expression and academic freedom. Whilst acknowledging some recent positive steps, including progress on media regulation and voter registration, the Commission has called on Belgrade to urgently reverse course on the polarisation path.
North Macedonia continues work on key roadmaps but must intensify efforts on judicial independence, the fight against corruption and constitutional changes related to minority recognition.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, a political crisis in the Republika Srpska entity has undermined progress, though the submission of a Reform Agenda in September 2025 offers renewed hope.
Kosovo, which saw reform momentum slow after the February general elections, must forge cross-party cooperation and sustain de-escalation in the north to get back on track.
Türkiye remains a candidate country and key partner, yet accession negotiations have been at a standstill since 2018. Increasing legal actions against opposition figures raise serious concerns about adherence to democratic values, and the Commission stresses that dialogue on the rule of law remains central to the relationship.
Georgia’s situation has sharply deteriorated: following a 2024 European Council conclusion that its accession process was de facto halted, the Commission now considers Georgia “a candidate country in name only” due to severe democratic backsliding, restrictive legislation on civic space and violations of fundamental rights.
