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Bracing for a trade war? EU weighs a response to Trump’s tariffs

On Sunday night (9 February), U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, raising concerns among U.S. trading partners. In response, the European Commission announced on Monday (10 February) that it will take action to “protect the interests of European businesses, workers, and consumers” in response to new U.S. tariffs. Later on Monday (10 February), President Trump formalised the tariffs by signing two official proclamations, making the 25% levy on all steel and aluminium imports legally binding. President Trump also revealed that later in the week, he would introduce new reciprocal tariffs on imports from countries that levy duties on U.S. exports.

The new plan was outlined on Thursday (13 February), and it was dubbed the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” directs the U.S. administration to evaluate and counteract non-reciprocal trade arrangements, including tariffs, subsidies, value-added taxes, exchange rate manipulation, and other barriers that disadvantage American businesses. The policy, outlined in a presidential memorandum, orders Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to conduct a country-by-country review of tariff and non-tariff barriers—including national VAT schemes. The report, which will be developed in consultation with the Treasury Department, the Department of Homeland Security, and other senior officials, will inform potential reciprocal tariffs.

While tariffs will not enter immediately into effect, implementation is expected soon after the study concludes on April 1. Trump has also signalled a willingness to lower tariffs if other countries reduce their trade barriers while acknowledging that the ultimate goal of this plan is to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.

In its initial statement, the Commission reaffirmed its readiness to take countermeasures if necessary, stating that “the EU sees no justification for the imposition of tariffs on its exports,” describing such a move as “illegal.” On Tuesday (11 February), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued a sharp statement on President Trump’s tariffs, stating bluntly that “tariffs are taxes”. She also warned that “unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered” and pledged that the EU “will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures” in response.

During a debate in the Strasbourg plenary on Tuesday (11 February) many MEPs strongly rejected the U.S. tariffs, condemning them as unjustified and damaging to the European economy. They underscored the need for EU unity in addressing these challenges and safeguarding European interests. In response, they called for firm and proportionate countermeasures, with some advocating tariffs on key U.S. exports to exert pressure on Washington.

Despite the calls for a tough stance, some MEPs emphasised the importance of maintaining open communication channels with the U.S. and seeking a negotiated resolution to prevent a full-scale trade war. However, there was also criticism of the European Commission’s response, with some arguing that it lacked strength and failed to adequately protect EU interests.

The Polish Presidency convened an urgent video conference of EU trade ministers on Wednesday (12 February) to discuss the U.S. decision to reinstate tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. After the meeting, the Polish Presidency underscored the EU’s unity and determination to protect its industries while maintaining a constructive approach towards transatlantic cooperation. 

The EU is preparing various responses to tariffs. One of the most likely options is the creation of a negative list – a targeted set of retaliatory measures as a short-term response. A majority of EU member states, including Germany and France, are advocating for a collective and unified EU response.

The most likely and immediate option of measures would be tariffs imposed on goods from key U.S. states that are politically crucial to the Republican Party, aiming to pressure Trump through his party’s lawmakers. Targeting key agricultural products could also heighten economic instability, especially amid rising prices. The Commission chose this route in response to Mr. Trump’s illegal 2018 Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. Several Republican policymakers, including Mitch McConnel, have already spoken out against tariffs in light of the retaliatory threat on their home state economies. 

In addition, the EU is working on various scenarios for implementing the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) as a countermeasure to U.S. tariffs and ad-hoc standalone legislation in the short term. This includes not only tariffs but also quotas, restrictions on services and investments, and the suspension of obligations and concessions under international agreements with the U.S.

However, the European Commission has not yet disclosed a concrete response, as its decision will depend on the European products affected, timing considerations, and market conditions. Therefore, the EU faces a crucial decision: retaliate swiftly to deter further escalation or seek a diplomatic solution to prevent a full-scale trade war. As Brussels weighs its options, businesses on both sides of the Atlantic brace for impact.

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