The West has a new hero. Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos was hailed by many as a message for the future. In a mere 17 minutes, the Canadian prime minister and former Bank of England governor laid out a clear-eyed assessment of a fractured global order and a bold vision for how middle powers can respond. It might be a vision Europe needs to subscribe to.
The rules-based liberal international order that guided decades of cooperation is in decline. The old system – mutual benefit, predictable rules, and broad trust – is gone, and countries should stop pretending its comforts will return. Although Mr Carney heavily critiques the effectiveness of the emerging order – after all, “hegemons cannot continually monetise their relationships”, and alliances will diversify to hedge again uncertainty – he stresses that nostalgia is no strategy. “You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration, when integration becomes the source of your subordination.”
Yet amid this rupture, Mr Carney sees opportunity. For middle powers like Canada, the path forward is to act strategically: building domestic strength, diversifying international partnerships, and forming coalitions where shared values enable effective action. To this end, Canada is investing in energy, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, trade corridors, and defence. It also attempts to streamline trade and remove barriers between provinces domestically. It is engaging broadly with open eyes, calibrating relationships to reflect values, and prioritising influence through action rather than hope.
“The powerful have their power,” Mr Carney acknowledges. But countries like Canada have the leverage and capacity to name reality, build strength at home, and act together abroad. “That is Canada’s path. We choose it openly and confidently, and it is a path wide open to any country willing to take it with us.”
In true EU fashion, Mr Carney’s speech bears a great source for a strategy or action plan – let’s call it the “Stay Alive Europe Five Point Plan.”
Point 1: Admit the old order is over and stop invoking the “rules-based liberal international order” (beyond announcing it is no longer with us).
Point 2: Diversify trade and investment partners. Reduce reliance on any single hegemon and build resilient supply chains. This means avoiding new dependencies, such as letting the U.S. supply 80% of EU LNG imports by 2030, as the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis warned on Monday (19 January).
Point 3: Invest in domestic strength. This is a big one. A non-exhaustive list includes energy (infrastructure, green technology manufacturing, electrification, hydrogen and battery capacity), technology (semiconductors, AI, digital platforms, quantum computing, European cloud initiatives, cybersecurity), defence (nearly everything Europeans currently rely on the U.S. for: command and control, nuclear sharing, advanced military tech, intelligence, air and missile defense, logistical and strategic support), and critical infrastructure (transportation, supply chains, ports, and communications networks).
Point 4: Forge coalitions and act collectively on shared issues while aligning partnerships with core values such as human dignity, sustainability, rule of law, and territorial integrity. Middle powers working together amplify influence. Mr Carney would approve that message.
Point 5: Demonstrate legitimacy as power. This is easy for confident Europeans until they realise it requires consistently applying rules and norms across allies and rivals to maintain real influence.
