Decisive Referendum Results Shake the Irish Political Landscape
On International Women’s Day 2024, the Irish people were asked to go to the polls to vote on two constitutional reforms, on (1) the family and (2) the provision of care. As the ballots were being counted the morning after, it was clear that a major upset was in the offing. Turnout for the referenda was 44.36 per cent, a significant drop from previous referendums. However, the results were decisive: the Irish people rejected the proposed amendments by decisive margins. On the proposed changes to the family to encompass “durable relationships”, 67% of voters rejected the proposal. On the proposed changes to care which also would have removed the clause on the women’s status in the home, 73% voted against. The results were almost a complete inversion of the pre-referendum projections of a decisive “Yes-Yes” victory.
In the aftermath of the result, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar came out to say that “It was our responsibility to convince a majority of people to vote yes, and we clearly failed to do so.” Swiftly politics resumed, with a number of opposition parties – including Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats – extensively criticising the communication failures of government ministers. Labour MEP Candidate, Aodhan Ó’Riordáin stated the failures were a result of putting “progressive causes” in the hands of “conservative parties.”
On the “No-No” side of the aisle, the results were celebrated as a rejection of government confusion and an expression of dissatisfaction with the status quo. The results were the fruits of a “David versus Goliath campaign” according to Aontú Leader Peadar Tóibín – whose party was the only one in the Oireachtas to campaign for “No-No.” Senator Michael McDowell, who emerged as almost the spiritual leader of the campaign, stated that the results showed “that they [the government] are badly out of touch with public opinion.”
In the aftermath of this political earthquake, the fallout has continued. Minister Peter Burke and powerful Fine Gael backbencher Charlie Flanagan highlighted the need to review the influence of NGOs on our policy discourse. Sinn Féin Spokesperson on Foreign Affairs Matt Carthy reversed the commitment of his party leader Mary Lou McDonald to re-run the referenda if they were unsuccessful. Two Fine Gael Senators were found to have been at the Ireland versus England rugby match, precluding them from voting. Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil faced a number of prominent party members including Seanad Leader Lisa Chambers and former Minister Willie O’Dea revealing they had in fact voted “No-No.”
The results of these referenda are a political bombshell in a year with local and European elections, and potentially a general election. Conversations will be happening in the halls of power over the coming weeks and months to ensure that another shock result does not occur when the country next goes to the polls.