D-Day looms for Taoiseach-elect Harris

It now seems like an eternity ago that Leo Varadkar announced his decision to step down as Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael. The next 24 hours passed in a whirlwind, with Simon Harris confirmed as successor in a leadership campaign carried out with surgical precision. Since then, the waters have calmed and the analysis sobered. A picture has begun to emerge of what a Harris-headed government will look like and what this will mean for the next twelve months. 

Firstly, the vote to ratify Harris as Taoiseach will take place upon the resumption of the Dáil on 9 April. With the government holding only a wafer-thin majority, there had been some suggestion that this vote could be more than a mere formality. Such speculation has been put to bed this week. Following behind closed door discussions, Harris has secured the backing of Independent TDs Denis Naughten, Marc MacSharry and Michael Lowry. 

The events of the last number of weeks have provided a degree of clarity as to when the next general election can be expected. In his maiden speech as leader of Fine Gael, Harris indicated that the government should run for its full term. This is also known to be the preferred position of Fianna Fáil and the Green Party. While the power to call a general election exists exclusively within the preserve of the Taoiseach, Harris will be acutely aware of Fine Gael’s reliance on Fianna Fáil, in particular, for any prospect of a return to government. Therefore, it appears very likely that the general election will not take place until Spring 2025. 

Harris has already provided some insight on the direction that he plans to take the party. He highlighted the need for Fine Gael to get back to basics and outlined that he intends to refocus the party by prioritising enterprise, equality of opportunity, integrity, and security. It is likely that he will attempt to make specific, targeted appeals to farmers and small businesses, particularly in rural Ireland where Fine Gael has recently struggled to retain some of its traditional support base. To this end, it is understood that Harris will launch a six-week call for proposals on how to support businesses affected by increased labour costs. At the same time, Harris has emphasised the need to encourage research and development by large companies in Ireland, and further changes to the R&D tax credit could make up the menu of options ahead of the budget in October. An even clearer picture of Harris’ policy priorities will be gained after his keynote address at the Fine Gael ArdFheis (National Conference) this weekend.

Both the formulation and implementation of policy during Harris’ tenure as Taoiseach will naturally be impacted, to a considerable extent, by the team of advisers that he surrounds himself with. This is now starting to take shape. In advance of Simon Coveney’s announcement that he will be stepping down from Cabinet, it had already been reported that his press adviser, Chris Donoghue, had been poached by Harris. He is likely to be appointed as the new Government Press Secretary. Sarah Bardon, a former journalist and an adviser to Harris since 2018, will likely assume the role of joint chief of staff alongside Joanne Lonergan, a former special adviser to Harris who also served as Assistant Government Secretary under Taoiseach Enda Kenny from 2011 to 2016. In addition to his joint chiefs of staff, Max Murphy is expected to be brought over from the Department of Further & Higher Education, where he currently works as Harris’ special adviser. He is likely to perform the role of intermediary between Harris and members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party. Former adviser, Majella Fitzpatrick is also expected to be brought back into the fold to fill a policy/programme manager role. Finally, it has been confirmed that Jack O’Donnell – who has previously advised a series of Fine Gael ministers – will join Harris’ team following a period serving as special adviser to Green Party junior minister Pippa Hackett.